Iran oil ban: Can US producers make up for shortfall?

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Two sources in OPEC told TASS the technical committee of OPEC + agreement plans to discuss further implementation of the deal during a scheduled meeting in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) on May 22.

Now that the USA sanctions are back, PSA says it is hoping for the European Union to adopt a common position on Iran.

The Iran deal was imperfect, but it was the West's best hope of stalling Iran's nuclear ambitions and averting a disastrous regional arms race.

Russian Federation and Iran sought to strengthen their business ties long before the 2015 agreement, despite global sanctions in place.

The U.S. administration is giving affected companies either 90 days or 180 days to wind down their interactions with Tehran before sanctions kick in again. While the Saudi military remains focussed on U.S. and European arms purchases, China, at a time that a military confrontation with Iran is not beyond the realm of the possible, is a source of weaponry the United States has been so far unwilling to sell to the kingdom. Incidentally, Iran is the third biggest producer in the OPEC block. Oxford estimated a GDP boost of 0.7 percentage points from the tax cuts, but if oil stays at the price it was Monday, "this could offset half of the fiscal boost in 2018", he wrote. The 2.2 million barrels decline - outpacing the polled number of 600,000 barrels fall in supply level - took gasoline stockpiles down to 235.8 million barrels.

Fortunately, the Obama-era sanctions that Trump has moved to reimpose have some lesser-known safety valves should oil markets later overheat as a result of the Iran decision. It is an indicator of current oil prices and volatility that affect the businesses of the companies engaged in the oil and refining industry.

"For the US economy, a prolonged rise in oil prices could reverse part of the benefits from the fiscal stimulus", wrote Gregory Daco, head of USA economics at Oxford Economics, in a research note.

Trying to ease market concerns, Saudi Arabia on Wednesday said it would work with other producers to lessen the impact of any shortage in oil supplies.

Snapping sanctions back on Iran will have an immediate impact on less than 200,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil, according to analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts.

Oil has been driven to the highest levels since 2014 as traders anticipated the move by Trump and on simmering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Ultimately, this may loosen the discipline and even prompt the deal participants to abandon the quota policy, Marinchenko says. He said the United States will likely push for 20% import reductions, in line with the Obama administration, but it would have to lower those expectations if the oil market tightens.

It remains unclear, if the sanctions will fully cut off Iran from the markets. Mr. Li, moreover, circumvented financial restrictions on Iran by funding his investment through what he called a "private transfer", a money swap that was based on trust and avoided regular banking channels. "And I think what we've seen is that Iran's economic condition is really quite shaky, so that the effect here could be dramatic", he said.

In a comment, Nigel Carden, Deputy Chairman for the UK Club managers, Thomas Miller P&I, said; "The decision is expected to have significant implications for maritime trade with Iran and the insurance of such trade".

Crude Oil: The federal government's EIA report revealed that crude inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels for the week ending May 4, following an increase of 6.2 million barrels in the previous week.

What will happen to oil prices?

"Germany has said it will protect its companies from US sanctions, Iran has said French oil giant Total (TOTF.PA) has yet to pull out of its fields and all the while it seems the Chinese are ready to fill the void created by the U.S", said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at AxiTrader. In the next three to four months, prices may continue to rise, Mitrova said. "Plus we see a high likelihood of OPEC working with Russian Federation in 2019 to set a floor on oil prices", analysts wrote.

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